What is the impact of the crisis on the Romanian political landscape?

Posted on January 11, 2019 by adminin Application, Development

Positioning of the parties during the crisis. Rise of populism

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The crisis changed the strategies of the parties, but also their messages addressed to the voters. Most of the political parties from Romania have made appeal to populist initiatives in order to convince the electorate of their good will. Because populism is a thin political ideology, leaders on the left and right of the political spectrum will express different variants of populism. They can do so by identifying socio-cultural threats to society or socio-economic threats. And given the crisis, populism is amplified even by parties or leaders which seemed not to embrace the ideology before.<br /> One month after the start of the crisis, main political parties do not register significant changes in the polls. Although, the Liberals are once again on a descending path, the Social Democrats did not manage to capitalize on the impact of the crisis yet. Union Save Romania managed to grow two points, but is still early to have a clear perspective on future evolution. The length of the crisis will define the also the impact on the parties.<br />
The elections are postponed

Amid the crisis, the electoral calendar was also changed by the Government through an emergency ordinance. Mandates of the mayors were extended until the end of the year, but the presumed month for the organization of the local elections is September, yet to be established based on the evolution of the sanitary situation. For the moment, the general elections are due on November. This situation creates competitive advantage for the Social Democrats, who would have lost important cities if the local elections would have taken place in June. Also, in contrast with the plan of the Liberals for early elections, a prolonged period of governance, especially in this extraordinary situation, will have a negative impact on the party of governance.

There are two scenarios for the elections based on the evolution of the crisis:

SCENARIO 1

✱ Local elections will be held in September – mandates of the mayors will be extended.

✱ General elections in November.

SCENARIO 2

✱ Both sets of elections will be organized in November or later on – in this case current mandates should be extended.

What is the plan of the opposition?

The Social Democrats are the main contestants of the Liberal governance. With a wide representation in the Parliament, most of the measures decided at governmental level are drastically changed by the Legislative. Most likely, PSD takes into account to initiate a vote of no confidence against Orban Government immediately after the sanitary crisis ends. For this reason, the Social Democrats make once again appeal to the populist discourse in order to capitalize the support of the electorate. But, if we were to take into consideration that Romania, the same as the other European countries, will enter into recession, the prospects if a future governance will be attentively weight by the Social Democrats. Possibly, the solution of a technocratic government will be approached for a definite period, which will be invested with the support of the Social Democrats and other parties such as Pro Romania and ALDE.

Union Save Romania has also changed the strategy after the start of the crisis. Less visible that PSD when it comes to the opposition to PNL, the Union increased criticism towards the measures taken by the Government. Given the context, the party will try once again to put pressure on the traditional parties and to show to the electorate the flaws of the system. After weak results in presidential elections from last year, USR also seems to be under internal reconstruction, thus their ability to grow in the coming period is strictly connected with the stability from the party.

Pro Romania of Victor Ponta is also trying a reposition, especially in the relation with the Social Democrats. Pro Romania is the main supporter of the Social Democrats in the Parliament, and is expected that this cooperation to develop during this crisis.

For the full article, containing sections such as Economic Forecast, How the crisis will influence the fate of the Liberal Government and What is the role of the President in this scenario, click here